The short answer
Each STC equals 1 MWh of expected generation over the system's deeming period. The STC value is set by the open market and typically sits between $30 and $40. In May 2026 it is around $37. STC quantity per system depends on system size, location zone, and current deeming period.
How STCs are calculated
STCs awarded = (system size in kW) x (zone rating) x (deeming period in years).
Adelaide is Zone 3 with a rating of approximately 1.382 kWh per kW per year. The deeming period is 10 years in 2026, reducing 1 year annually until the scheme ends in 2030.
Example: 6.6kW Adelaide system in May 2026
= 6.6 x 1.382 x 10
= ~91 STCs (rounded to whole STCs)
At $37/STC: ~$3,370 worth of STCs. After admin / clearing house fees (~5-10%), the customer typically sees ~$2,200-$2,600 discount on the invoice.
Note: STC accumulation calculators online may show slightly different numbers depending on roundings and the date-specific deeming year boundary.
How the STC value moves
STC prices are set by supply and demand in the STC spot market. When solar uptake spikes (excess STC supply), prices fall. When the government adjusts the Renewable Energy Target binding obligation, prices can spike.
Historical range: $20-$40/STC over the past 5 years. Currently stable around $35-$38.
The rebate value to YOU is locked in at the time your installer claims the STCs (typically within 30-60 days of install). If STC prices rise during your install window, your installer may pass through the upside (rare). If they fall, your installer usually absorbs the loss.
STC scheme end-date and what happens then
The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme is legislated to end on 31 December 2030. After that date:
- New solar installs no longer receive STC rebate
- Existing systems already installed are unaffected
- The federal government has not announced a successor program
The deeming period steps down each year between now and 2030:
- 2025: 11 years
- 2026: 10 years
- 2027: 9 years
- 2028: 8 years
- 2029: 7 years
- 2030: 1 year (final partial-year deeming)
So your rebate value drops every 1 January. Buy earlier to capture more.